If trumps tariffs are struck down by the supreme court

[rdemaree]

If trumps tariffs are struck down by the supreme court (potentially today?) I have 2 questions:

1. Will ebay allow Canada Post labels again eventually? I would assume most things would be able to move mostly tariff free or with low tariffs via Canada Post if trumps tariffs get struck down.  (within this year?) 

2. Will the de minimis come back in some form eventually? (within this year?)

Curious to hear everyones thoughts. 

I am assuming it will be murky for a little while even if his tariffs do get struck down and im also assuming he has more tricks up his sleeves and that he will ramp up the rhetoric against CUSMA so im not expecting Canada Post labels and de minimis action anytime in the near future but curious about possibilities in the intermediate future. 

[flipistics]

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@rdemaree wrote:

If trumps tariffs are struck down by the supreme court (potentially today?) I have 2 questions:

1. Will ebay allow Canada Post labels again eventually? I would assume most things would be able to move mostly tariff free or with low tariffs via Canada Post if trumps tariffs get struck down.  (within this year?) 

2. Will the de minimis come back in some form eventually? (within this year?)

Curious to hear everyones thoughts. 

I am assuming it will be murky for a little while even if his tariffs do get struck down and im also assuming he has more tricks up his sleeves and that he will ramp up the rhetoric against CUSMA so im not expecting Canada Post labels and de minimis action anytime in the near future but curious about possibilities in the intermediate future. 

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Trump has said that he has an alternate plan ready to go if they are struck down. My guess is the alternate plan will likely be worse that what is in place right now. I wouldn't expect anything to improve until after Trump leaves office.

[rdemaree]

could be true but with midterms coming up, him bleeding support with the general public as well as elected GOP officials, and a sore loss at the hands of the supreme court I cant imagine anything he does will stick around until the end of his term. (if he even finishes this term)

[recped]

Do you really think R's & D's in congress can get together enough to pass Veto proof legislation or convict on another impeachment?

Our only hope is "natural causes"!

Here are a couple of articles about the actual betting odds in the past day or two......

https://www.barrons.com/articles/betting-markets-supreme-court-tariffs-1ba90930

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supreme-court-rules-against-trump-111541209.html?

[fergua3]

Plus there is a very decent chance there won't be any midterm elections.  Trump has already floated the idea of cancelling them more than once, and with the recent shootings by Fed agents it's quite possible Trump is trying to stir up public outrage, so he can declare martial law.  He could then try to cancel the midterms for 'national security' reasons.

The US is not what it was...

[codacloset]

If the de minimis returns I would guess it would be almost immediately. It was overturned by an executive order and if an executive order is reversed things would revert back to what they were before. Trump has alternate "plans", but they are measures that can only really be applied to specific sectors of imports and to specific countries. I think some of them are only for finite amounts of time. I don't believe any of these would really be able to include the de minimis being erased again. I don't think he can claim another national state of emergency again to strike it down again, but maybe I'm wrong.

[phc64]

If the US Supreme Court upholds the decisions of two lower courts that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to impose tariffs without the approval of congress, I predict that the US administration will immediately attempt to impose them under some other legislation. This action will then once again face legal challenges, and it will once again take a year for the process to move through the courts.

This would be very bad news for those of us (like me) who sell primarily 'instructional materials' (books, compact discs, phonograph records), which under the IEEPA are exempt from any measures imposed under that act. Should the US administration attempt to impose tariffs outside of the IEEPA, this exemption will no longer apply.

[mrdutch1001]

IF...IF...IF...one can not place any emphasis on "IFs"; one cannot base a "Logical" discussion on "IFs"....

We best plan for more of the same sh*tshow as long as there is "illogic" ruling the USA... 

[phc64]

No ruling today.

[byto253]

Looks like the next window is the 14th.  Who knows.

[reallynicestamps]

The problem with the tariffs is that they were put in by executive order, rather than passed by Congress.

Same with the de minimus. 

The tariffs seem likely to be struck down-- but who knows with this Supreme Court?

The de minimus seems to have been forgotten. It only affected small shipments and gifts. Do you really think that government cares if Aunt Belinda's hand knitted sweater cost her American nephew $100 in duty because there is no duty free allowance?

[codacloset]

True, but it also affects a fair amount of American small businesses that would buy inventory for their business and keep under the de minimis by ordering small amounts of inventory.

[easoss]

I agree. The de minimus is the real problem not the tariffs. I worry that no matter who gets elected the de minimus will never change back. 

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

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@easoss wrote:

I agree. The de minimus is the real problem not the tariffs. I worry that no matter who gets elected the de minimus will never change back. 

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What is throwing a whole other wrench into all of this is out of control processing fees. Getting dinged every time even if it is a straight forward entry. It's become a situation where couriers and their customs brokers are taking advantage of a situation. (Similar to what happened with suppliers and masks etc during Covid.)

If you are a high volume (business) importer you have a customs broker on speed dial with access to negotiated discounted rates. If you are a every so often, not so much.

[rdemaree]

This is why I absolutely refuse to use UPS/ Fedex for packages going into the USA.

I will use Chitchats / Stallion express or MAYBE swiftpost if I was very desperate. 

Ideally within the next few years Canada Post can be an option on the table again but UPS and Fedex arent reliable options for American packages right now. Even my international customers dont like it when I use them due to the wild brokerage fees. 

[codacloset]

The different aspects of the IEEPA tariffs aren't being ruled on though. What's being ruled on is Trump's ability to levy tariffs and tax American individuals and companies. I listened most of the to the arguments on Nov 5th and there were numerous Conversative justices that were acknowledging that the tariffs were taxes and should thus be approved by Congress. 

The de minimis was set to $0 because Trump declared a "national emergency". If the Court deems there was no emergency and he overstepped his bounds by imposing these tariffs, they will all be struck down. He will probably be given power to impose outlandish tariffs on certain commodities and countries, but not on low value shipments that are obviously just a form of tax.

[mrdutch1001]

A ruling dictator(Trump) can and wil do as he pleases until removed from office>IF and when anyone has the balls to do that...

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

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@mrdutch1001 wrote:

A ruling dictator(Trump) can and wil do as he pleases until removed from office>IF and when anyone has the balls to do that...

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The first go around he was testing the waters and practising. This time he knows what he can get away with and as he stated in a recent interview he does things based on HIS conscience. Not acceptable or legal norms. He has perfected the art of workarounds. All I know is when or if he ever gets out of office it will take a very long time to undo ALL the damage he has done and is doing.

[sapphyres-designer-jewellery]

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@lotzofuniquegoodies wrote:

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@mrdutch1001 wrote:

A ruling dictator(Trump) can and wil do as he pleases until removed from office>IF and when anyone has the balls to do that...

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The first go around he was testing the waters and practising. This time he knows what he can get away with and as he stated in a recent interview he does things based on HIS conscience. Not acceptable or legal norms. He has perfected the art of workarounds. All I know is when or if he ever gets out of office it will take a very long time to undo ALL the damage he has done and is doing.

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I hear you, lots of damage has already been done.

I know people who are afraid to post their opinions online or send them with their phone because having a negative opinion of the current government is grounds to be barred for 5 years.

Someone at work told me a friend was asked what they thought of Trump and they said they didn't like him, they got turned around back to Canada and barred for 5 years. I thought it was a gross exaggeration until a week or so ago that one of my friends said the border guards asked "what do you think of Trump?" and the guy replied "I'm glad he's the president of the USA not the president of Canada" and he got barred for 5 years.

Really makes me just not want to go there anytime soon... I have to go to Africa in a few months and paid a lot more to NOT fly through the US. It's better that way anyway, when  you're inbound into the US from another country (that doesn't have preclearance) they will serve all Americans and returning residents before they deal with foreign passports. We've waited 2 hours to clear immigration and almost missed our flight. Even at the window they kept asking again and again "are you staying in the US before going home" and I finally said "I will have to if I miss my flight." Then they let us go.

C.

[mrdutch1001]

Indeed, It will take years upon years for the USA to undo and/or recover from the atrocities of the Trump administration...and a great length of time for the rest of the world to regain any sort of trust for the USA...