Tariffs/ EIS - Your predictions?

[rdemaree]

I am curious to hear what you guys think will change (for better or for worse) this year if/ when the supreme court overturns trumps tariffs.

Do you guys think at some point ebay will get rid of the false tariff warning from listings that arent using the lousy EIS service?

Do you think we will be able to use Ebay Canada Post labels again at some point IF the tariffs are denounced by the supreme court? If not when do you think they would re-enable Canada Post labels? (please dont mention Zonos. I sell CUSMA products primarily and have not and will not ever use Zonos etc.). I am speaking from the perspective of the tariffs being forcefully removed from Canada via the supreme court and then it being an option again for Canadian sellers without the illegal 35% tariffs.

Also- I shouldnt even have to ask this but the trump administration are mobsters so I do have to ask - Do you think there will ever come a point where DDU is an option to the USA via Canada Post to USPS? Meaning The USA/ USPS would be required to do the duty collecting like how its done EVERYWHERE ELSE ON EARTH! ? I feel like its wishful thinking for the orange crime gang but logically youd think at some point thats how it would work. 

In all of my listings I offer Canada Post for Canada and ALL international locations but I have to use 3rd party shipper for the USA because currently USPS wont accept DDU and do not handle CUSMA shipments. If it was a 2-5% tariff it wouldnt be a huge deal but 35% is an embargo. 

EIS and the illegal tariffs are a huge thorn in the side of my business and have been since early fall as I am sure it has for many of you as well. 

If ebay got rid of or carefully re-worded the tariff warning and/or USPS allowed DDU- both of these things following a favorable supreme court tariff ruling i'd be moving in the right direction to get back to some normalcy. 

All thoughts welcomed!

[mrdutch1001]

As long as DT is dictator of the USA, there will be tariffs as those tariffs are DTs leverage & control mechanism for maintaining the Trump Empire; those tariffs feed his greedy self and provide that warm fuzzy feeling of power and control over the world.

[flipistics]

I expect Trump to increase the tariffs as the CUSMA negotiations proceed, probably to 50% or more. 

I doubt we'll see DDU come back even if Trump leaves. I expect that DDP will become the norm everywhere eventually, and it kind of makes sense. I doubt we'll see the de minimis return either since that didn't seem to be overly popular with either party.

If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, I expect we'll see him slap high "package inspection fees" on all packages. That would be much, much worse.

eBay has said they have no current plans to implement Zonos. I don't know whether that's due to something on their end or something on Canada Post's. It seems like very few places have integration with it, which makes me wonder if NetParcel and Shopify may have a special trial deal or something.

I doubt you'll see eBay remove the wording. The only way I could see it working is if you tick off a box that specifically says the item will be shipped DDP, but there's still people who would lie and send it using other methods anyway. I think it would open a whole can of worms that eBay doesn't want to deal with. They're (probably correctly in this case) thinking of the buyer experience, not the seller.

[grann-4629]

Doesn't he already own the Supreme Court? Tariffs are his toy and they won't go away until he goes away.

[7366carl]

Hate to be negative but I would not hold my breath.  From what I understand even if they do overturn the tariffs there is other ways then can just add them back on. 

I can't see how eBay could remove the tariff warnings since they don't control how we ship our items. As you know with UPS it is DDU and USPS(Canada Post) it is DDP. USPS is not capible of handing DDU with the volumes they recieve and I agree with flipistics that I can actually see the world heading to DDP. It is simplier and less people trying to get people to pay at the door. But I can see DDP being integrated into the purchase payment. Just like with sales tax. That way the buyer would be paying it upfront. We would have to provide proper item descriptions though. From what I understand the UPU is actually working on this.

But I agree. This cut my business by at least 50%-70% and it is not exactly motivating me. But on the other hand I do like EIS. I think it has been a great addition and is about 20% of my current sales.

[sapphyres-designer-jewellery]

I had a buyer spend a lot (over $1000) and then ask to cancel because he thought the DDP through Stallion was "funny business" that was going to get him in trouble with the law.

I explained on the product he bought, there are no tariffs, Stallion doesn't pay any tariffs to transport them across the border, and the break down of multiple packages is the $300 CAD limit in insurance on each one (Stallion has a limit, but don't know how that applies with de minimis gone, people at the B&M store have been asking me if they can ship over $800 in one go, but I don't know the answer to that).

Anyway after explaining, buyer calmed down a bit about his order and told me to go ahead and ship (in multiple packages as I outlined I was going to do).

I did notice however the buyers purchasing silver coins from me are none too concerned about tariffs, I used to get lots of messages asking about tariffs but that seems to have stopped. Many orders came in to ship to the US with Stallion (some having 10-15 tariffs, some having none... higher tariffed goods are only listed in THIS store... with no USA shipping enabled).

C.

[dinomitesales]

Honestly, I would be very surprised if anything ever happens with the supreme court and tariffs. It will just keep getting pushed off indefinitely. And if supreme court rules they're unlawful then Trump will just find some other way to charge them. There's pretty much no chance of the de minimis being reinstored either. I agree with @flipistics that the tariff on Canada is going to get worse before it gets better; we'll probably be joining Brazil in the 50% club in the next few months.

Zonos isn't going anywhere, which means eBay will never allow US-bound Canada Post labels to be printed on their platform unless they integrate Zonos (unlikely).

eBay is probably working on a way for us to agree to some sort of declaration if we want the blue banner to disappear - we know they were already offering this to some sellers in a very limited trial, so it's on their mind at least.

Ask again in three years.

[schoondeals]

I have been shipping CD's to the USA outside of EISP using zonos because they are duty and tariff free. I have read that DVD's are also duty free. I'm not sure how CUSMA works but I would like to learn. I want to ship as much items as I can to the USA. I'm just a slow and cautious learner

[marnotom!]

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@rdemaree wrote:

I am curious to hear what you guys think will change (for better or for worse) this year if/ when the supreme court overturns trumps tariffs.

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Probably not much.  I agree with those who believe that there's a "plan B" up Trump's sleeve for implementing tariffs should the Supreme Court rule that the tariffs enacted under the Emergency Measures Act  are problematic.

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

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@schoondeals wrote:
I have been shipping CD's to the USA outside of EISP using zonos because they are duty and tariff free. I have read that DVD's are also duty free. I'm not sure how CUSMA works but I would like to learn. I want to ship as much items as I can to the USA. I'm just a slow and cautious learner

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As a side the discounted rate for anything going to the hub is substantially better than a shipment going to just a random Canadian customer for comparison. It appears eBay is playing this nuance against sellers sending directly to US customers outside of eBay Labels and having to use a service with a lesser discount.  As a check I tested the rate for an eIS shipment from Calgary to hub. It was 11.84. Same parcel from Mtl to GTA rate was 13.00 and change. 

[intimewithmusic]

 "As a side the discounted rate for anything going to the hub is substantially better than a shipment going to just a random Canadian customer for comparison. "

Hi Lotz,

I'm not sure that a discounted rate for the seller will help with sales. For example if you sell your listing today (Feb 4) eBay item number:157656098962 "On This Airplane - Pb By Heuer, Lourdes" for $7.00 BIN via EIS to a buyer in Bakersfield Ca

THEIR cost of shipping is $19.73ca. It will go by pony express to Mississauga, sit around in the hub and finally head backwards to the USA west coast ending up in Bakersfield. This will take between February 25 and March 6, a full 3 weeks to a month until delivery.

The same package would ship to Australia via tracked packet for about the same price and get there faster. Last year it would have cost the Bakersfield buyer $8.05  for shipping and they would have it in 10 -12 days tops.

At that rate of delivery time and cost the objective of satisfying a US buyer via EIS for of a lower value item is unlikely.  Even if eBay made shipping to the hub free that cost is irrelevant to your bottom line because you only receive back your cost to the hub plus a handling fee if you charge one.  eBay will be the sole beneficiary of any profit realized by shipping the item from the hub to Bakersfield. You will be the sole beneficiary of any bad feedback.

What the buyer cares about is all that is important. In this case the $19.73 shipping cost and 3 weeks to more than a month delivery time for a $7.00 book is not going to end well... unless it's a pretty special book.

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

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@intimewithmusic wrote:

I'm not sure that discounted rate for the seller will help with sales. For example if you sell your listing today (Feb 4) eBay item number:157656098962 "On This Airplane - Pb By Heuer, Lourdes" for $7.00 BIN via EIS to a buyer in Bakersfield Ca

THEIR cost of shipping is $19.73ca. It will go by pony express to Mississauga, sit around in the hub and finally head backwards to the USA west coast ending up in Bakersfield. This will take between February 25 and March 6, a full 3 weeks to a month until delivery.

The same package would ship to Australia via tracked packet for about the same price and get there faster. Last year it would have cost the Bakersfield buyer $8.05  for shipping and they would have it in 10 -12 days tops.

At that rate of delivery time and cost the objective of satisfying a US buyer via EIS for of a lower value item is unlikely.  Even if eBay made shipping to the hub free that cost is irrelevant to your bottom line because you only receive back your cost to the hub plus a handling fee if you charge one.  eBay will be the sole beneficiary of any profit realized by shipping the item from the hub to Bakersfield.

All the buyer cares about is all that is important which is your $19.73 shipping cost and 3 weeks to more than a month delivery time for a $7.00 book.

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@intimewithmusic 

My personal preference would be to use eIS for USA only and tracked international where applicable to the rest of my Intl. customers. This is very challenging with the options in place and how eBay is showing lowest rates when a buyer does a routine search. In many cases they need to open each listing to see if there are other rates in place. How it is currently working appears to be intentional. To disuade sellers from using outside means and buyers to find/see outside means. 

As an example I recently sent a small package to Tx with eIS. Default was letter so that delayed total transit time. Buyer saw letter rate so that is what they paid. Total transit time was 20 days. According to shipping details shipping was 17.80.  I believe tariff free. If I would have sent tracked price would have been in the 7.50 range and would have been delivered in under 10 days. (EU via CP tracked would be 1/3 the cost and delivered in under 10 days vs 25 to 30.) 

Video of goings on at the US eIS hub. It states packages only are there a day or so. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzLC5D3IwOI

[clemowbooks]

FWIW - I've been selling by mail order for over 40 years, and three weeks from Canada to  the USA has been normal for all that time.

It's often faster, rarely slower, but  three weeks is nothing unusual no matter how the parcel is shipped. 

[intimewithmusic]

   I think we may be expecting too much of buyers if we think they will sift thru shipping options looking at cost and delivery time. The buying trend is "tap and go".  I do hope things at the hub and the exchange from eBay to it's partners speeds up but again it's irrelevant. It's what the buyer sees before they make the purchase that counts.  Please post a few detailed tracking reports to show us the scan points and delays. 

  Canadians using EIS compete directly with USPS Media Mail and other USPS services. Long before tariffs came into play competing with Media Mail was a huge challenge.  Zonos is a substitute for some but if you investigate you will find out it was Zonos's owners that donated huge sums to his election campaign. After the win Zonos lobbied Washington to eliminate the de minimis causing CP to become "DDP" (sounds like an Arlo guthrie song...)

  The situation is very fluid for sure. As the drama unfolds I hpe things will play out favourably over the next 12 months.  Stay united as not to become "Divided and conquered."

"And friends, somewhere in Washington enshrined in some little folder, is a
study in black and white of my fingerprints. And the only reason I'm
singing you this song now is cause you may know somebody in a similar
situation, or you may be in a similar situation, and if your in a
situation like that there's only one thing you can do and that's walk into
the Post Office wherever you are, just walk in say "Postie, You can get
anything you want, at Alice's restaurant.". And walk out. 

[intimewithmusic]

   Wow three weeks... Maybe there's a delay from Victoria.  I've shipped out of Vancouver and Kelowna from numerous retail outlets about 45 years.  My average this past 5 years or so going from Kelowna to anywhere in the lower 48 states is 9 -14 days via tracked packet or Exp Prl USA.  All packages have had a proper set of customs documents on the outsides of the parcels.

   Once at Christmas 2024 I had one item going to NY take 3 weeks due to backlog. The customer contacted me to report it lost but then it showed up. I've never lost an item. In Europe I've had to circumvent a regional restriction a time or two like not identifying the wood species on Michael Jackson's drummer's sticks. that got them delayed 10 days at Frankfurt customs.

   Not sure how you ship internationally but I recommend tracking and 2 copies of a commercial manifest on the outside of any package no matter what people say. Maybe it's just a lucky rabbit's foot but this has been my experience.

[intimewithmusic]

"Video of goings on at the US eIS hub. It states packages only are there a day or so. "

Are they just considering Mississauga?... because that's not the whole story. As shown in the tracking my experience with EIS is it floats around for 6 days in the GTA before Acendia finally sent it off to South Carolina.

[marnotom!]

@intimewithmusic, this may or may not be related to what you've been discussing, but were the postal operations in Kelowna recently expanded?  I sent off a return package (Expedited Parcel) from central Vancouver Island bound for Calgary and it made two scanned stops along the way.  The one in Richmond was to be expected, but there was an additional one in Kelowna for this one.

Of course, it may well be that stuff going from Richmond to Calgary often stops off in K-Town and gets transferred to another truck without getting scanned, but I just found this interesting in a geeky way.

[clemowbooks]

Which means it arrived at the Toronto terminal on Friday,

Canada Post doesn't deliver over the weekend,

and it was given to eIS on Monday.

EIS gave it a tracking number on Tuesday.

EIS passed it to Ascendia on Friday.

Which shows where the slowdown is. 

[clemowbooks]

FWIW - DD was unable to fly out of Castlegar this week - every single flight in or out was cancelled for five days in a row. 

There is weather in the Rockies. 

Sometimes even climate.

Truck routes get closed too or plugged up by slow moving traffic. 

The Kelowna stop may have been a diversion for safety reasons.

[intimewithmusic]

  No I don't think there was any change with postal. I wonder if it could have been due to the Coquihalla Highway or Okanagan connector closures? Throughout January the highways have been closed regularily, sometimes in both directions due to excessive snowfalls, washouts and major accidents.

  Even though the interior has had an incredibly mild winter truckers have been riddled with very long delays on one highway or the other. Typically, if there's trouble on the Coq freight out of Vancouver can divert to Hwy 3 thru Princeton. This year Hwy 3 has been intermittently washed out when the Coq was closed. 

  Something like that could explain a postal truck stopping even overnight in Kelowna. The routes east of us had similar problems. I've never seen a year without snow. We rely heavily on agriculture and with our  recurring widlfire problem it's looking like we could have a water shortage this year.

  “Neither rain, nor snow, nor sleet, nor hail shall keep the postmen from their appointed rounds.”