Thought Experiment: Global Shipping Risk Assessment by Country

[dinomitesales]

I fed all the countries in the world into ChatGPT and asked for it's assessment on shipping risk (i.e. countries which would be generally safe and trouble-free to ship to, vs. those that you should avoid). This was the output. Seemed like an interesting thought experiment I could post here for further discussion.

What do you think about this assessment? Are there any countries in the GREEN list you would never ship to (and why); similarly are there countries in the RED list you think aren't as bad? Any YELLOW countries you have good relationships with and would happily bump up to GREEN?

Personally, there's a few GREEN ones I would avoid at the moment - notably Israel due to the war/political instability; and Germany because of the packaging requirements (although I haven't seen much discussion of this lately - is this still an issue for casual imports into the country?).

---

✔️GREEN — Low Risk / Minimal Issues

(Reliable postal systems, strong tracking, low loss/theft)

North America & Territories

• United States

• Bermuda

• Saint Pierre and Miquelon

Caribbean

• Puerto Rico

• U.S. Virgin Islands

• Aruba

• Cayman Islands

Central & South America

• Chile

• Uruguay

• Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)

• French Guiana

Europe

• Andorra

• Austria

• Belgium

• Cyprus

• Czech Republic

• Denmark

• Estonia

• Finland

• France

• Germany

• Gibraltar

• Greece

• Guernsey

• Hungary

• Iceland

• Ireland

• Italy

• Jersey

• Latvia

• Liechtenstein

• Lithuania

• Luxembourg

• Malta

• Monaco

• Netherlands

• Norway

• Poland

• Portugal

• San Marino

• Slovakia

• Slovenia

• Spain

• Svalbard and Jan Mayen

• Sweden

• Switzerland

• United Kingdom

• Vatican City State

Africa

• Mauritius

• Seychelles

• Reunion

• Botswana

• Namibia

• Morocco

Middle East

• Bahrain

• Qatar

• United Arab Emirates

• Israel

• Oman

• Kuwait

Asia-Pacific

• Japan

• Singapore

• Hong Kong

• Macau

• Taiwan

• Brunei Darussalam

• Australia

• New Zealand

• Guam

• American Samoa

• New Caledonia

• Wallis and Futuna

---

🟡 YELLOW — Medium Risk / Workable With Tracking

(Generally safe in urban areas, but slower customs, rural delays, or some loss risk)

North America & Territories

• Greenland

• Mexico (urban areas safer with couriers)

Caribbean

• Bahamas

• Barbados

• Saint Kitts-Nevis

• Saint Lucia

• Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

• Turks and Caicos Islands

• Costa Rica

• Dominican Republic

• Martinique

• Guadeloupe

Central & South America

• Argentina

• Brazil

• Colombia

• Ecuador

• Paraguay

• Suriname

Europe (Eastern/Southern)

• Croatia, Republic of

• Romania

• Bulgaria

• Serbia

• Montenegro

• North Macedonia

Africa

• Egypt

• Gabon Republic

• Cape Verde Islands

• Kenya

• Ghana

• Tanzania

• Zambia

• Tunisia

• Lesotho

• Swaziland (Eswatini)

Middle East

• Turkey

• Jordan

• Saudi Arabia

Asia-Pacific

• Malaysia

• Thailand

• Vietnam

• Indonesia (urban areas okay)

• French Polynesia

• Cook Islands

• Niue

• Fiji

• Palau

• Vanuatu

• Tonga

---

🚫RED — High Risk / Avoid If Possible

(High loss/theft risk, very slow customs, unreliable tracking, or political instability)

North America & Territories

• — (none in this category)

Caribbean

• Belize

• Dominica

• El Salvador

• Grenada

• Guatemala

• Haiti

• Honduras

• Jamaica

• Montserrat

• Netherlands Antilles

• Nicaragua

• Panama (borderline yellow/red — customs issues)

Central & South America

• Bolivia

• Guyana

• Peru

• Venezuela

Europe

• Belarus

• Moldova

• Ukraine (war risk)

• Russian Federation (sanctions & delays)

Africa

• Nigeria

• Somalia

• Central African Republic

• Chad

• Mali

• Burundi

• Guinea-Bissau

• Liberia

• Sierra Leone

• Congo, Democratic Republic of the

• Congo, Republic of the

• Angola

• Eritrea

• Equatorial Guinea

• Libya

• Western Sahara

Middle East

• Lebanon

• Iraq

• Yemen

Asia-Pacific

• Afghanistan

• Yemen

• Pakistan

• Bangladesh

• Philippines

• Cambodia

• Laos

• Nepal

• Mongolia

• Kyrgyzstan

• Tajikistan

• Turkmenistan

• Uzbekistan

• Bhutan

• Papua New Guinea

• Solomon Islands

• Kiribati

• Marshall Islands

• Micronesia

• Nauru

• Tuvalu

• Western Samoa / Samoa

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

@dinomitesales  Thanks for sharing!!  Interesting. As a test I tried sending a low value item recently to Germany via Intl. Tracked. I was hesitant to ship because of packaging regulations. Customer pleaded. It was delivered in 4/5 days with minimal basic packaging and no added customs charges on a Saturday. Maybe I got super lucky?  Regarding chatGPT and Google AI....like wikipedia. Should both be taken with a large number of grains of salt. I've seen other news reports and some of the assorted tests were scary to say the least. So personally not ready to jump on the bandwagon!!!! 

It appears it did not take packaging regulations/requirements or additional customs details into consideration...well atleast according Google AI. Note the USA is "considering" special packaging requirements when it comes down to recycling. (First I had heard there was anything like that being consided. Can see that going over like a very large lead balloon.) As for the several applicable European countries, it makes it very challenging for small volume shippers to consider including.

***********************

Many countries, particularly in the European Union, have packaging regulations aimed at reducing waste and promoting sustainability. These regulations often focus on issues like recyclability, material reduction, and labeling requirements. 

European Union (EU):

• The EU has been a leader in packaging regulations, with the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) being a key piece of legislation. 
• The PPWR sets targets for reducing packaging waste, with a focus on plastic packaging reduction. 
• It also mandates that all packaging must be recyclable. 
• Member states like Germany, France, and Italy have specific regulations within the EU framework. 

Germany:

• The German Packaging Act (VerpackG) requires importers to license packaging entering Germany and to participate in a recycling system.
• Non-compliance can result in penalties.
• Importers must register with the Central Packaging Register (ZSVR) and obtain a LUCID Packaging number. 

France:

• France requires packaging licensing through registration with the French environmental authority, ADEME.
• They issue a Unique Identification Number (UIN) for different waste streams.
• France also has labeling requirements, including the Triman Logo and the Infotri separation notice. 

Italy:

• Italy enforces packaging labeling requirements, requiring specific material information and sorting advice.
• Online traders are subject to these requirements. 

Other Notable Countries:

• United States:

  The US also has regulations and is working on revising them to address packaging waste.
• Asia and Latin America:

  Many countries in these regions are also implementing or revising packaging regulations. 

Key Elements of Packaging Regulations:

• Extended Producer Responsibility:

  Regulations often place responsibility on producers (manufacturers, importers, etc.) for the end-of-life management of their packaging. 
• Recyclability:

  Regulations focus on ensuring packaging is recyclable and promoting recycling infrastructure. 
• Material Reduction:

  Efforts to minimize the amount of packaging used, particularly plastic. 
• Labeling:

  Regulations often require specific labeling on packaging to inform consumers about material composition and recycling instructions. 

  See part 2. According to eBay limit is 20,000 characters. 

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

Part 2:

Results using ChatGPT: "what countries have special packaging requirements for international shipments"

Many countries have special requirements for international shipments, ranging from customs documentation to prohibited items, labeling, taxes, and licenses. Here’s an overview of notable countries and the types of special requirements they typically enforce:

Partial results. 

Many countries have special packaging requirements for international shipments to ensure product safety, compliance with health and safety regulations, and adherence to local laws. These requirements vary by product type (e.g., food, electronics, hazardous materials) and are often enforced at customs. Here's an overview of countries with notable packaging regulations:

---

🌍 General Packaging Requirements by Country

🇪🇺 European Union (EU)

• Packaging Waste Directive: Requires recyclable or reusable packaging.

• REACH & RoHS: Restrictions on hazardous substances (mainly for electronics).

• Green Dot System: Some countries require you to pay into recycling schemes (e.g., Germany, France).

🇩🇪 Germany

• LUCID Packaging Register: You must register packaging and pay recycling fees.

• VerpackG (Packaging Act): All packaging must be licensed with a dual system.

• Mandatory recycling labels and eco-design considerations.

🇫🇷 France

• Triman Logo: Required on recyclable packaging.

• Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) registration.

• No plastic wrapping for some produce (e.g., fruits/vegetables).

• Language: Packaging must be labeled in French.

🇮🇹 Italy

• Mandatory material identification codes on all packaging (as per EU Decision 97/129/EC).

• Labeling must be in Italian and clearly indicate disposal methods.

🇨🇳 China

• Strict labeling and certification requirements, especially for food, cosmetics, and electronics.

• China RoHS compliance for electronics.

• Products must often be labeled in Chinese.

• Pallets often must be heat-treated and ISPM-15 certified.

🇯🇵 Japan

• Must follow Japanese Industrial Standards (JIS).

• Over-packaging is common but must still meet eco-labeling requirements.

• Language: Japanese labeling is typically required.

• Emphasis on presentation and cleanliness.

🇧🇷 Brazil

• Portuguese labeling required.

• ANVISA regulates packaging for food, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals.

• Wood packaging must be fumigated and ISPM-15 compliant.

[phc64]

The reason the Netherlands Antilles is listed as 'red' ('High Risk - Avoid if possible') may well be that it ceased to exist fifteen years ago.

[Anonymous]

Interesting, but it appears Canada didn't even make the list. Are we below RED or above GREEN?

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

@dinomitesales 

I did a random test using ChatGTP as to which countries DJT is most annoyed with.

First time Canada came in first.  Whodda thunk it!!! 

2nd time China. Canada was 3rd.

3rd attempt China. Canada was 5th.

Makes one wonder if he is a shareholder in ChatGTP? 

Yes. Same format each time!!

Disclaimer: Your results may vary!!

[dinomitesales]

I didn’t feed it Canada since it was irrelevant.

And someone needs to let eBay know that Netherlands Antilles doesn’t exist - I just copied and pasted the list of countries from what they had available when selecting “excluded countries” lol.

[sapphyres-designer-jewellery]

Comments:

Chile - Not Green, no way in... I was staying in Chile and shipped a whole pile of packages, ALL of them got stolen by the postal authorities! The receipt they gave me for tracking the tracked ones was bogus. They are all a bunch of thieves. They are on my red list from personal experience.

Malaysia - I would put that on the Green list.

Samoa/Micronesia - never had problems shipping there. Although for Samoa things might have changed, it's been 20 years since I sent anything there.

I'd also put Italy, Spain and Portugal on the yellow list. I've had quite a few problems shipping there, they are not on my list of places I ship to on eBay.

C.

[38e_avenue]

---

@sapphyres-designer-jewellery wrote:

Chile - Not Green, no way in... I was staying in Chile and shipped a whole pile of packages, ALL of them got stolen by the postal authorities! The receipt they gave me for tracking the tracked ones was bogus. They are all a bunch of thieves. They are on my red list from personal experience.

Malaysia - I would put that on the Green list.

Exactly the opposite here. All items shipped to Chile arrived to their destination. BTW, Chile is the ONLY South American country I ship to - all other are excluded, except of Falklands (shipped hrough the UK)

Malaysia - a real horror, banned since many years. 80% of the packages were lost. 

[sapphyres-designer-jewellery]

---

@38e_avenue wrote:

---

@sapphyres-designer-jewellery wrote:

Chile - Not Green, no way in... I was staying in Chile and shipped a whole pile of packages, ALL of them got stolen by the postal authorities! The receipt they gave me for tracking the tracked ones was bogus. They are all a bunch of thieves. They are on my red list from personal experience.

Malaysia - I would put that on the Green list.

Exactly the opposite here. All items shipped to Chile arrived to their destination. BTW, Chile is the ONLY South American country I ship to - all other are excluded, except of Falklands (shipped hrough the UK)

Malaysia - a real horror, banned since many years. 80% of the packages were lost. 

---

It might depend what you're shipping and where you're shipping it from. I was in Puerto Chacabuco which is some hole of a town (where the local mart only has rotten produce). There's stray dogs roaming the streets, one dog I saw was eating another dog's tail (which was no longer attached to the other dog). I shipped some letters from Punta Arenas without problems, that was a much bigger city. My stuff was obviously stolen at the Correos in Puerto Chacabuco where I mailed it. They took my postcards which I paid to put stamps on, but they didn't put stamps in front of me. My Spanish was not good enough to argue with them at the time (I was just learning, did not know how to say "put stamps on them right now"), so I gave them the money and left. None of the postcards made it. Seriously, they stole everything I dropped off, and all the money I paid to have it shipped, and gave me bogus tracking for all the registered packages.

C.

[cottagewoman]

Interesting - a member of the Canadian eCommerce Resellers FB group, who is attending eBay Open 2025, has spoken with the international shipping team who reported that there will be a Canadian GSP program starting sometime this fall, with the center in Mississauga.

[Anonymous]

Ah, so the list wasn"t really generated by AI - you put in the country names and AI just picked the winners and losers.

[Anonymous]

A Canadian GSP program??

Yikes! When that happens, all the negative talk about overcharged shipping and delays with the eBay system in the US will be reversed, and we will be the bad guys ...

[marnotom!]

---

@Anonymous wrote:

A Canadian GSP??

Yikes! When that happens, all the negative talk about overcharged shipping and delays with the eBay system in the US will be reversed, and we will be the bad guys ...

---

Only if sellers decide to use the program.

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

---

@marnotom! wrote:

---

@Anonymous wrote:

A Canadian GSP??

Yikes! When that happens, all the negative talk about overcharged shipping and delays with the eBay system in the US will be reversed, and we will be the bad guys ...

---

Only if sellers decide to use the program.

---

@marnotom!  Are you picturing an automagical opting in for Canadian sellers? Not even going to try to imagine what could potentially happen to current cp discounts!!!

In the USA from speaking to numberous sellers they didn't know a) how they got into the program and b) could never figure a way out. Either for one ofs or permanently. Many just threw their hands in the air and gave up.

[Anonymous]

 I am guessing that those who gave up are the sames ones that use the eBay system for international shipping without knowing the final cost to the buyer, who don't respond to courteous suggestions that they try a different shipping method when offers are declined, and who are suffering from low sales.

I am hoping an expert can tell one how to get out of this program if they haven't been able to figure out how to opt out by themselves - I am assuming it's a seller selectable option, so it must be possible.

[Anonymous]

and ... there's a lot of stuff I want to buy from US sellers - their item only offer prices are very competitve, they have stuff I can't find in Canada, but their shipping costs are stupidly high. I often wonder if they are aware, but based on their lack of response, I am assuming they do know and don't need the sales.

Does eBay get a bigger piece of their high intrrnational shipping rates?

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

@Anonymous 

I guess to them they see it as Canada as a not worth it market. That or just didn't enjoy the few extra keystrokes for international shipping and maybe 1 more pc of paper...olden days. I would ask US sellers if they would ship with USPS directly. I even took the time to explain the cost difference and time it took with GSP then eIS. Some tried but couldn't figure it out. Bigger sellers could never be bothered. After a while I just gave up. It's forced me to try harder to either locate in Canada or if I could get...get via Amazon. And I used to be fairly regularly...in the past from US sellers. 

[recped]

---

@Anonymous wrote:

Does eBay get a bigger piece of their high intrrnational shipping rates?

---

If they are not it would only be because whomever they contracted to run EIS is scooping it all. 

Basically they charge USPS International rates minus 5 - 10%, I ship to overseas buyers at about 30 - 40% off USPS rates and still have a healthy handling charge included.

Of course the main reason for EIS (and GSP in the UK) is those two countries top the list for sellers that are VERY resistant to shipping anything to anyone if they are outside the their own country (some would call them xenophobes). That attitude hardly exists amongst Canadian eBay sellers, it's pretty much a given that you ship at least to the US and for many sellers worlwide or at least mostly worldwide.

[Anonymous]

Ah yes, the good old days ...

Do you remember when you would hide a ten dollar bill in a folded piece of paper, put it in an envelope, use a pen to write the receiver's address on the envelope, buy a stamp, drop it in the mail and wait a week or two to get something? A true buyer/seller deal, with eBay acting as a venue only.

Trust in each other was key, until the scammers started moving in. Scammers are everywhere now, they call me at least 3 times a day and my partner gets dozens of scam emails on her phone every day. It's hard to believe that Canadians get scammed out of billions every year.

Ah yes... the good old days ...

In the current world, which is being further corrupted by AI, nobody trusts anybody - the relationships were had then no longer exist.