Thought Experiment: Global Shipping Risk Assessment by Country

[dinomitesales]

I fed all the countries in the world into ChatGPT and asked for it's assessment on shipping risk (i.e. countries which would be generally safe and trouble-free to ship to, vs. those that you should avoid). This was the output. Seemed like an interesting thought experiment I could post here for further discussion.

What do you think about this assessment? Are there any countries in the GREEN list you would never ship to (and why); similarly are there countries in the RED list you think aren't as bad? Any YELLOW countries you have good relationships with and would happily bump up to GREEN?

Personally, there's a few GREEN ones I would avoid at the moment - notably Israel due to the war/political instability; and Germany because of the packaging requirements (although I haven't seen much discussion of this lately - is this still an issue for casual imports into the country?).

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✔️GREEN — Low Risk / Minimal Issues

(Reliable postal systems, strong tracking, low loss/theft)

North America & Territories

• United States

• Bermuda

• Saint Pierre and Miquelon

Caribbean

• Puerto Rico

• U.S. Virgin Islands

• Aruba

• Cayman Islands

Central & South America

• Chile

• Uruguay

• Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)

• French Guiana

Europe

• Andorra

• Austria

• Belgium

• Cyprus

• Czech Republic

• Denmark

• Estonia

• Finland

• France

• Germany

• Gibraltar

• Greece

• Guernsey

• Hungary

• Iceland

• Ireland

• Italy

• Jersey

• Latvia

• Liechtenstein

• Lithuania

• Luxembourg

• Malta

• Monaco

• Netherlands

• Norway

• Poland

• Portugal

• San Marino

• Slovakia

• Slovenia

• Spain

• Svalbard and Jan Mayen

• Sweden

• Switzerland

• United Kingdom

• Vatican City State

Africa

• Mauritius

• Seychelles

• Reunion

• Botswana

• Namibia

• Morocco

Middle East

• Bahrain

• Qatar

• United Arab Emirates

• Israel

• Oman

• Kuwait

Asia-Pacific

• Japan

• Singapore

• Hong Kong

• Macau

• Taiwan

• Brunei Darussalam

• Australia

• New Zealand

• Guam

• American Samoa

• New Caledonia

• Wallis and Futuna

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🟡 YELLOW — Medium Risk / Workable With Tracking

(Generally safe in urban areas, but slower customs, rural delays, or some loss risk)

North America & Territories

• Greenland

• Mexico (urban areas safer with couriers)

Caribbean

• Bahamas

• Barbados

• Saint Kitts-Nevis

• Saint Lucia

• Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

• Turks and Caicos Islands

• Costa Rica

• Dominican Republic

• Martinique

• Guadeloupe

Central & South America

• Argentina

• Brazil

• Colombia

• Ecuador

• Paraguay

• Suriname

Europe (Eastern/Southern)

• Croatia, Republic of

• Romania

• Bulgaria

• Serbia

• Montenegro

• North Macedonia

Africa

• Egypt

• Gabon Republic

• Cape Verde Islands

• Kenya

• Ghana

• Tanzania

• Zambia

• Tunisia

• Lesotho

• Swaziland (Eswatini)

Middle East

• Turkey

• Jordan

• Saudi Arabia

Asia-Pacific

• Malaysia

• Thailand

• Vietnam

• Indonesia (urban areas okay)

• French Polynesia

• Cook Islands

• Niue

• Fiji

• Palau

• Vanuatu

• Tonga

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🚫RED — High Risk / Avoid If Possible

(High loss/theft risk, very slow customs, unreliable tracking, or political instability)

North America & Territories

• — (none in this category)

Caribbean

• Belize

• Dominica

• El Salvador

• Grenada

• Guatemala

• Haiti

• Honduras

• Jamaica

• Montserrat

• Netherlands Antilles

• Nicaragua

• Panama (borderline yellow/red — customs issues)

Central & South America

• Bolivia

• Guyana

• Peru

• Venezuela

Europe

• Belarus

• Moldova

• Ukraine (war risk)

• Russian Federation (sanctions & delays)

Africa

• Nigeria

• Somalia

• Central African Republic

• Chad

• Mali

• Burundi

• Guinea-Bissau

• Liberia

• Sierra Leone

• Congo, Democratic Republic of the

• Congo, Republic of the

• Angola

• Eritrea

• Equatorial Guinea

• Libya

• Western Sahara

Middle East

• Lebanon

• Iraq

• Yemen

Asia-Pacific

• Afghanistan

• Yemen

• Pakistan

• Bangladesh

• Philippines

• Cambodia

• Laos

• Nepal

• Mongolia

• Kyrgyzstan

• Tajikistan

• Turkmenistan

• Uzbekistan

• Bhutan

• Papua New Guinea

• Solomon Islands

• Kiribati

• Marshall Islands

• Micronesia

• Nauru

• Tuvalu

• Western Samoa / Samoa

[reallynicestamps]

Interesting that the IMPORTER is responsible for those German (and French) packaging requirements that the US Sellers Board is so het up about.

[reallynicestamps]

someone needs to let eBay know that Netherlands Antilles doesn’t exist

For that matter, St. Pierre et Miquelon is a department of France and not a colony or independent nation.

I often see SP&M on "no ship" lists of US sellers who likely don't know that it is in the Gulf of St Lawrence.

OTOH, they may not know of the Gulf of St Lawrence either.

[reallynicestamps]

ChatGPT suffers from GIGO.

It can't weigh the value of the opinions it is scraping.

Israel is on my no-fly list, because stuff sent there does not get delivered in my opinion.

And it's a war zone.

So is India for the same reason.

Russia and Saudi Arabia are too, but for political reasons.

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

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@reallynicestamps wrote:

ChatGPT suffers from GIGO.

It can't weigh the value of the opinions it is scraping.

Israel is on my no-fly list, because stuff sent there does not get delivered in my opinion.

And it's a war zone.

So is India for the same reason.

Russia and Saudi Arabia are too, but for political reasons.

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Very true. Sad we have to use that mindset with most everything online. I have been using it for eBay search results for a little over 3 years. At least for what the what is returned for results part. It's like having an option for spinning a wheel or using a Ouija board. Maybe  include any election in Alberta to that list?

[dinomitesales]

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@reallynicestamps wrote:

ChatGPT suffers from GIGO.

It can't weigh the value of the opinions it is scraping.

Israel is on my no-fly list, because stuff sent there does not get delivered in my opinion.

And it's a war zone.

So is India for the same reason.

Russia and Saudi Arabia are too, but for political reasons.

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I used to be fine with Israel - it was one of the country's available via Canada Post Tracked Packet, so it at least had tracking and I had Canada Post's back if it went missing. But due to the political instability there at the moment it's not worth shipping - air travel to the country can be impacted at a moment's notice.

One of my most problematic countries with regard to INR cases was Italy, so I blocked them for personal reasons. I've actually sent a few things untracked to Chile as well and never had an issue with them (knock on wood).

Also, just a suggestion: If people want to discuss this potential new Canadian GSP hinted at during eBay Open maybe start a new thread? If this one ends up becoming the defacto discussion forum for that topic then people aren't going to be able to find it when they're looking in the future.

[mrdutch1001]

" and we will be the bad guys ." ...according to DT, we already are"Mean and nasty"

[sapphyres-designer-jewellery]

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@reallynicestamps wrote:

someone needs to let eBay know that Netherlands Antilles doesn’t exist

For that matter, St. Pierre et Miquelon is a department of France and not a colony or independent nation.

I often see SP&M on "no ship" lists of US sellers who likely don't know that it is in the Gulf of St Lawrence.

OTOH, they may not know of the Gulf of St Lawrence either.

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You can ship to SP&M by addressing the letter to FRANCE and putting SP&M as the province/region. I know this because I know someone in Reunion and he told me to address his letters to France and put Reunion before France and then Paris would forward it there.

I also know to ship to Jersey and Guernsey you can address it to the UK. I had a letter going to Jersey addressed to the UK once (buyer was trying to get around the Jersey block). I shipped it and then inquired at Royal Mail if that was OK and if he'd receive it. They told me Jersey and Guernsey are part of Royal Mail in the UK and the mail will be forwarded there.

C.

[Anonymous]

And our Prime is that, plus 'stubborn'

[mrdutch1001]

not to get engrossed in Canadian politics here but current PM is exactly what Canada needed ....someone with economics, logic, sense and sensibility...